Description
TL;DR: A University of Brasília study that found the tested technical indicators produced more false Bitcoin signals than true ones.
About This Document
Felipe Pereira Coelho Mourão analyzes U.S.-dollar prices from the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index between January 2012 and March 2018. The thesis classifies bullish and bearish indicator signals by whether subsequent price movement confirmed them, then evaluates the result statistically. It reports that false signals outnumbered true signals and says the tested approach did not validate technical analysis as a predictive instrument for Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin People May Care
Negative results are useful, especially in a market that manufactures hindsight at industrial scale. The paper connects its finding to the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It remains one historical dataset and one test design, not proof about every indicator or future period, and it is not investment advice.
What You Receive
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Document Details
- Title: Análise Técnica na Previsão do Movimento do Preço da Bitcoin
- Author / organization: Felipe Pereira Coelho Mourão
- Year: 2018
- Language: Portuguese
- Document type: Undergraduate thesis
- Pages: 39
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